发现外星人倒计时时间说明

发现外星人倒计时时间说明

2074年11月16日24:00

当地球人抬头仰望夜空，头顶璀璨的星空会让他们心底生出很多奇妙的感觉来。

当地球人意识到自己是困居星空一隅的时空孤儿时，深深的孤独感会让他们的灵魂震颤不已，同时会产生寻找外星生命的强烈冲动。

一、外星人是存在的：据保守估计，在目前可观测的930亿光年宇宙范围内，大约有2000亿个像银河系一样的星系，每个像银河系这样的星系里，又有大约2000亿颗像太阳一样的恒星，每颗恒星又有数量不等的行星和卫星。按上述分析估算下来，在已知的宇宙空间里面，至少存在400万亿亿颗像太阳一样的恒星。

面对如此浩瀚、如此庞大的星系数量，“地球是唯一有生命的行星”的说法，无论如何都是无法让人信服的。地球，绝不可能是宇宙空间里面独一无二的存在。既然地球上可以进化出智慧生命，那其他行星上也完全可以孕育出智慧生命。

二、德雷克方程式：1960年，美国天文学家法兰克·德雷克，提出了著名的德雷克公式，N=Ng×Fp×Ne×Fl×Fi×Fc×FL，这个公式意思是：银河系内可能与我们通讯的文明数量=银河系内恒星数目×恒星有行星的比例×每个行星系中类地行星数目×有生命进化可居住行星比例×演化出高智生物的概率×高智生命能够进行通讯的概率×科技文明持续时间在行星生命周期中占的比例。

根据这个公式，德雷克本人在1961年提出了一个初步的估计值，认为银河系内可能存在10个左右的可通讯星际文明。

德雷克方程中的参数是不确定的，不同的估计方法和假设会导致不同的结果。后来，根据更多的天文观测和科学研究，人们对德雷克方程中的参数进行了修正和更新，得到了不同程度的乐观或悲观的结果，从几百万到零不等。

德雷克方程并不是一个精确的科学公式，而是一个启发性的思考工具，它帮助我们理解寻找外星文明所需要考虑的因素和难度。

但是，不管怎样，除了地球人之外，在已知的宇宙空间里，其他星际文明，也就是外星人的存在，是几乎可以完全肯定的事情。

三、第一次提出寻找外星人的方法：1959年9月19日，英国《自然》杂志刊登了意大利天文学家朱塞佩科可尼和美国物理学家菲利普莫里森联合著作的论文《寻求星际交流》，文章指出：外星文明进行星际通信的最好方式是通过无线电波，地球人类和外星人可以通过无线电信号交流。

这篇文章引发了用射电望远镜探测外星人的提议，激发了人们寻找外星人的热情，增强了科学家们探究地外生命的信心。

四、第一次发射联络外星人的无线电波：1974年11月16日，在美国波多黎各山谷，阿雷西博射电望远镜完成了改进，科学家们为了证明其传输能力，用它向两万五千光年以外的M13球状星团，发射了一个无线电信号，这是人类与外星文明的第一次联络。

当时以史蒂芬·霍金为首的众多科学家非常反对在未知情况下与外星人建立联系，但还是没有阻止成功。

五、第一次发射联络外星人的飞行器：1977年9月5日，美国宇航局发射了一艘无人外太阳系空间探测器——旅行者1号，旅行者1号曾到访过木星及土星，是飞行距离最远的人造卫星。  

2014年9月13日凌晨，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）宣布，旅行者1号探测器已经离开太阳系，正在飞向别的恒星。旅行者1号同时也是首个冲出太阳系的人造飞行器，是人类航天史上一座极具纪念意义的里程碑。

美国航空航天局设计了一个复杂详细的讯息板，置于旅行者1号探测器之上，这个讯息板更像一个时间囊，打算向外太空的其他生物诉说地球人类身处的世界。

旅行者1号还携带了一张铜质磁盘唱片，内容包括用55种人类语言录制的问候语和各类音乐，还有115幅影像，包括太阳系各行星的图片、人类的性器官图像及说明等，这些数据旨在向“外星人”表达人类的问候。

六、最大射电望远镜建成：2016 年 9 月 25 日，由南仁东院士发起并牵头建设的“中国天眼”500 米口径球面射电望远镜FAST，在贵州省平塘县的喀斯特洼坑中落成，开始接收来自宇宙深处的电磁波，并且持续产出重量级发现，首次在射电波段观测到黑洞“脉搏”、发现迄今轨道周期最短脉冲星双星系统、探测并构建世界最大中性氢星系样本，截止2024年4月，（FAST）已发现超900颗新脉冲星，极大拓展了人类观察宇宙视野的极限。 

七、预言和期待：2012年07月，在爱尔兰都柏林举行的欧洲科学论坛上，英国天体物理学家约瑟琳伯奈尔表示，人类将在100年之内和外星人联系上。

英国天文学家、皇家学会前任会长马丁里斯也声称，未来40年内将发现外星人。

2022年9月，瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院的天文学家萨沙克邦茨，预测了人类真正发现地外文明的时间，“在2047年之前，人类或将发现外星人”，并且给出了“25年倒计时”。

关于发现外星人，还有不少科学家做出过预测，但是谁也无法给出准确的时间。

既然科学家们给出了100年、40年、25年的预测，那我们就不妨采纳或者参考一下。

鉴于人类第一次发射无线电信号联络外星文明的时间是1974年11月16日，那我们就把2074年11月16日24:00，也就是人类第一次发射无线电信号联络外星文明的100年时间，暂定为发现外星人的倒计时时间。

本文版权所有者：御光者网站

Explanation of the Countdown Time for Discovering Aliens

November 16, 2074 at 24:00

When people look up at the night sky, the brilliant starry sky above their heads will give them many wonderful feelings in their hearts. 

When Earthlings realize that they are time and space orphans trapped in a corner of the starry sky, a deep sense of loneliness will make their souls tremble, and at the same time, they will have a strong impulse to search for extraterrestrial life. 

1、 Aliens exist: according to conservative estimates, there are approximately 200 billion galaxies like the Milky Way within the currently observable 93 billion light years of the universe. Within each galaxy like the Milky Way, there are approximately 200 billion stars like the Sun, each with varying numbers of planets and satellites. Based on the above analysis, it is estimated that there are at least 40 trillion stars like the Sun in the known universe. 

The statement that "Earth is the only planet with life" is unconvincing in the face of such a vast and massive number of galaxies. The Earth cannot be a unique existence in space. Since intelligent life can evolve on Earth, intelligent life can also be nurtured on other planets. 

2、 Drake's equation: In 1960, American astronomer Frank Drake proposed the famous Drake's formula, N=Ng x Fp x Ne x Fl x Fi x Fc x FL. This formula means: the number of civilizations in the Milky Way that may communicate with us=the number of stars in the galaxy x the proportion of stars with planets x the number of terrestrial planets in each planetary system x the proportion of habitable planets with life evolution x the probability of evolving intelligent organisms x the probability of intelligent life communicating x the proportion of technological civilization duration in the planetary life cycle. 

Based on this formula, Drake himself proposed a preliminary estimate in 1961, suggesting that there may be around 10 communicable interstellar civilizations within the Milky Way. 

The parameters in the Drake equation are uncertain, and different estimation methods and assumptions can lead to different results. Later, based on more astronomical observations and scientific research, people modified and updated the parameters in the Drake equation, resulting in varying degrees of optimistic or pessimistic results, ranging from several million to zero. 

The Drake equation is not an exact scientific formula, but an inspiring thinking tool that helps us understand the factors and difficulties that need to be considered in searching for extraterrestrial civilizations. 

However, in any case, besides Earthlings, the existence of other interstellar civilizations, namely aliens, in the known universe is almost entirely certain. 

3、 The first method proposed for searching for aliens: On September 19, 1959, the British journal Nature published a paper titled "Seeking Interstellar Communication" co authored by Italian astronomer Giuseppe Coconi and American physicist Philip Morrison. The article pointed out that the best way for extraterrestrial civilizations to conduct interstellar communication is through radio waves, and humans on Earth and aliens can communicate through radio signals. 

This article sparked the proposal to use radio telescopes to detect aliens, sparking people's enthusiasm for searching for aliens and enhancing scientists' confidence in exploring extraterrestrial life. 

4、 The first launch of radio waves to contact aliens: On November 16, 1974, in the Puerto Rico Valley of the United States, the Arecibo radio telescope was improved. To prove its transmission capability, scientists used it to send a radio signal to the M13 globular cluster 25000 light-years away, marking the first communication between humans and extraterrestrial civilizations. 

At that time, many scientists led by Stephen Hawking were very opposed to establishing contact with aliens in unknown situations, but they still did not prevent success. 

5、 The first launch of a spacecraft to contact aliens: On September 5, 1977, NASA launched an unmanned extrasolar space probe, Voyager 1. Voyager 1 visited Jupiter and Saturn, making it the farthest artificial satellite to fly. 

On the early morning of September 13, 2014, NASA announced that the Voyager 1 spacecraft had left the solar system and was flying towards other stars. Voyager 1 is also the first artificial spacecraft to break out of the solar system, marking a highly commemorative milestone in human space history. 

NASA has designed a complex and detailed message board, placed on top of the Voyager 1 probe. This message board is more like a time capsule, intending to tell other creatures in outer space about the world in which humans live. 

Voyager 1 also carried a copper disk record, which includes greetings and various music recorded in 55 human languages, as well as 115 images, including pictures of planets in the solar system, images and explanations of human genitalia, etc. These data are aimed at expressing human greetings to "aliens". 

6、 The construction of the largest radio telescope: On September 25, 2016, the "China Eye" 500 meter diameter spherical radio telescope FAST was completed in a karst depression in Pingtang County, Guizhou Province. It began receiving electromagnetic waves from the depths of the universe and continued to produce heavyweight discoveries. For the first time, a black hole "pulse" was observed in the radio band, the shortest orbital period pulsar binary system was discovered to date, and the world's largest sample of neutral hydrogen galaxies was detected and constructed. As of April 2024, (FAST) has discovered over 900 new pulsars, greatly expanding the limit of human observation of the universe. 

7、 Prophecy and Expectation: In July 2012, at the European Science Forum held in Dublin, Ireland, British astrophysicist Josephine Burnell stated that humanity would be in contact with aliens within 100 years. 

British astronomer and former president of the Royal Society, Martin Reese, also claimed that aliens will be discovered within the next 40 years. 

In September 2022, astronomer Sashakbonz from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted the time when humans would truly discover extraterrestrial civilizations. "Before 2047, humans may discover aliens," and gave a "25 year countdown.". 

Many scientists have made predictions about the discovery of aliens, but no one can provide an accurate time. 

Since scientists have provided predictions for 100, 40, and 25 years, we may consider adopting or referencing them. 

Given that the first time humans transmitted radio signals to contact extraterrestrial civilizations was on November 16, 1974, we have tentatively set the time of 24:00 on November 16, 2074, which is the 100 year period when humans first transmitted radio signals to contact extraterrestrial civilizations, as the countdown to the discovery of aliens. 

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